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Oţelul vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
5/4/2025Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul44%
×Draw28%
AFC Hermannstadt28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.30
AFC Hermannstadt
0.98

Oţelul creates 33% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 138 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.18
AFC Hermannstadt
0.90

allows per match

Oţelul
1.05
AFC Hermannstadt
1.42

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
72%
Oţelul or AFC Hermannstadt
72%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
56%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
20%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
73%
Oţelul 2+ goals
37%
Oţelul 3+ goals
14%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
62%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
26%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
61%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oţelul scores more
44%
level
28%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
28%

Oţelul at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 1–2 AFC Hermannstadt

AFC Hermannstadt beat Oţelul 2-1 in Liga I on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.