Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Hermannstadt vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Oţelul
Oţelul
11/2/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt38%
×Draw29%
Oţelul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.17
Oţelul
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 58 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
67%
AFC Hermannstadt or Oţelul
71%
Draw or Oţelul
62%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
16%
Oţelul wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
69%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
33%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
11%
Oţelul 1+ goals
66%
Oţelul 2+ goals
29%
Oţelul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
53%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Oţelul attack 1.10 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
38%
level
29%
Oţelul scores more
33%

AFC Hermannstadt at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: AFC Hermannstadt 1–3 Oţelul

Oţelul beat AFC Hermannstadt 3-1 in Liga I on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.