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Otava Katovice vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
3 – 5
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
10/10/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8Katovice - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Otava Katovice65%
×Draw18%
Hvězda Cheb17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
2.54
Hvězda Cheb
1.25

Otava Katovice creates 103% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 28 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
83%
Otava Katovice or Hvězda Cheb
82%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
35%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
43%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
92%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
72%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
46%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
71%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
36%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
79%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.54

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
65%
level
18%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
17%

Otava Katovice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otava Katovice vs Hvězda Cheb

Hvězda Cheb beat Otava Katovice 5-3 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Katovice - tráva in Katovice.