Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hvězda Cheb vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
4/30/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 23Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Hvězda Cheb46%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
1.90
Otava Katovice
1.54

Hvězda Cheb creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
68%
Hvězda Cheb or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
54%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
26%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
85%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
56%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
29%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
79%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
45%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
59%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
46%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
32%

Hvězda Cheb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hvězda Cheb vs Otava Katovice

Hvězda Cheb beat Otava Katovice 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiva in Cheb.