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Otava Katovice vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
CANC
15:00
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
6/19/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Katovice - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Otava Katovice40%
×Draw22%
České Budějovice II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
1.80
České Budějovice II
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 26 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
62%
Otava Katovice or České Budějovice II
78%
Draw or České Budějovice II
60%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
21%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
83%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
54%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
27%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
83%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
53%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
51%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.80

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
40%
level
22%
České Budějovice II scores more
38%

Otava Katovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otava Katovice face České Budějovice II (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Otava Katovice hosting České Budějovice II. Match starts June 19, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Otava Katovice host České Budějovice II at Katovice - tráva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.