Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

České Budějovice II vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
CANC
08:30
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14SCM Složiště UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

České Budějovice II73%
×Draw15%
Otava Katovice12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
2.80
Otava Katovice
1.06

České Budějovice II creates 164% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 56 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
3.30
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

České Budějovice II
0.78
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
88%
České Budějovice II or Otava Katovice
85%
Draw or Otava Katovice
27%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
52%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
94%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
76%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
52%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
65%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
29%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
86%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 3.30 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.80

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + České Budějovice II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
73%
level
15%
Otava Katovice scores more
12%

České Budějovice II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

České Budějovice II face Otava Katovice (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with České Budějovice II hosting Otava Katovice. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

České Budějovice II host Otava Katovice at SCM Složiště UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.