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Otava Katovice vs Baník Sokolov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
3/30/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Dudák Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Otava Katovice43%
×Draw22%
Baník Sokolov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
1.88
Baník Sokolov
1.68

Otava Katovice creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Baník Sokolov
2.00

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Baník Sokolov
1.47

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Baník Sokolov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Baník Sokolov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
65%
Otava Katovice or Baník Sokolov
78%
Draw or Baník Sokolov
57%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
23%
Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
85%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
56%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
29%
Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
81%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
50%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
55%
Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Baník Sokolov away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Baník Sokolov attack 2.00 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
43%
level
22%
Baník Sokolov scores more
35%

Otava Katovice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otava Katovice 2 – 2 Baník Sokolov

Otava Katovice and Baník Sokolov drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Dudák Arena in Katovice.