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Baník Sokolov vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
9/2/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 5Stadion FK Baník Sokolov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baník Sokolov58%
×Draw19%
Otava Katovice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Sokolov
2.58
Otava Katovice
1.60

Baník Sokolov creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Baník Sokolov
2.87
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Baník Sokolov
1.87
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Baník Sokolov+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Sokolov ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Baník Sokolov or draw
77%
Baník Sokolov or Otava Katovice
81%
Draw or Otava Katovice
42%

Winning margin

Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
38%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
92%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
72%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
47%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
80%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
47%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
72%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Sokolov at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Sokolov attack 2.87 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.58

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Baník Sokolov scores more
58%
level
19%
Otava Katovice scores more
23%

Baník Sokolov at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Baník Sokolov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Baník Sokolov 2–1 Otava Katovice

Baník Sokolov beat Otava Katovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Baník Sokolov in Sokolov.