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Otava Katovice vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
4/22/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 23Dudák Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Otava Katovice39%
×Draw23%
Aritma Praha38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
1.69
Aritma Praha
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Aritma Praha
1.98

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Aritma Praha
1.09

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
62%
Otava Katovice or Aritma Praha
77%
Draw or Aritma Praha
61%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
20%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
82%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
50%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
24%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
81%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
50%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
51%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.09 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Aritma Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.69

Aritma Praha attack 1.98 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
39%
level
23%
Aritma Praha scores more
38%

Otava Katovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otava Katovice vs Aritma Praha

Otava Katovice beat Aritma Praha 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Dudák Arena in Katovice.