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Aritma Praha vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
9/24/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8Areál Aritmy UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Aritma Praha64%
×Draw19%
Otava Katovice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aritma Praha
2.21
Otava Katovice
1.01

Aritma Praha creates 119% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 56 away

creates per match

Aritma Praha
2.13
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Aritma Praha
0.67
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Aritma Praha+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aritma Praha ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aritma Praha or draw
84%
Aritma Praha or Otava Katovice
81%
Draw or Otava Katovice
36%

Winning margin

Aritma Praha wins by 2+
41%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aritma Praha 1+ goals
89%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
65%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
38%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
64%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
27%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
80%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aritma Praha at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aritma Praha attack 2.13 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.21

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Aritma Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Aritma Praha scores more
64%
level
19%
Otava Katovice scores more
16%

Aritma Praha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aritma Praha vs Otava Katovice

Aritma Praha beat Otava Katovice 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Areál Aritmy UMT in Praha.