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Ostrovets FC vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
11/5/20221. Division1. Division · Round 25Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ostrovets FC28%
×Draw22%
ML Vitebsk50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrovets FC
1.45
ML Vitebsk
1.98

ML Vitebsk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ostrovets FC
1.50
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

Ostrovets FC
1.60
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw
50%
Ostrovets FC or ML Vitebsk
78%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
72%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
13%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
77%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
42%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
18%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
86%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
59%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
36%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more
28%
level
22%
ML Vitebsk scores more
50%

ML Vitebsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrovets FC vs ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Ostrovets FC 5-0 in 1. Division on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen ASK in Astravets.