ML Vitebsk 3–1 Ostrovets FC: Result & Stats

ML Vitebsk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ostrovets FC

7/21/2024

1. Division · Round 15CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ML Vitebsk50%

×Draw22%

Ostrovets FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ML VitebskExpected goals in this matchOstrovets FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.35

ML Vitebsk

1.89

Ostrovets FC

1.35

ML Vitebsk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 69 away

2.18

creates per match

1.58

1.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

ML Vitebsk

2.18

Ostrovets FC

1.58

allows per match

ML Vitebsk

1.11

Ostrovets FC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Ostrovets FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw

72%

ML Vitebsk or Ostrovets FC

78%

Draw or Ostrovets FC

50%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

28%

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

85%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

56%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

29%

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals

74%

Ostrovets FC 2+ goals

39%

Ostrovets FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

65%

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.18 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.89

Ostrovets FC attack 1.58 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more

50%

level

22%

Ostrovets FC scores more

28%

ML Vitebsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff