Ostrovets FC 1–2 FC Dnepr Mogilev: Result & Stats

Ostrovets FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Dnepr Mogilev

9/20/2025

1. Division · Round 25City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ostrovets FC30%

×Draw24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostrovets FCExpected goals in this matchFC Dnepr Mogilev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.71

Ostrovets FC

1.33

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.71

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 49 away

1.50

creates per match

1.82

1.60

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Ostrovets FC

1.50

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.82

allows per match

Ostrovets FC

1.60

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw

54%

Ostrovets FC or FC Dnepr Mogilev

76%

Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev

70%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+

13%

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals

74%

Ostrovets FC 2+ goals

38%

Ostrovets FC 3+ goals

15%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

82%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

51%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)

39%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 1.82 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more

30%

level

24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

46%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff