Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Ostrovets FC — 1. Division 2018

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
5/17/20251. Division1. Division · Round 8Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev52%
×Draw23%
Ostrovets FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.21

FC Dnepr Mogilev creates 51% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.06
Ostrovets FC
1.58

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.84
Ostrovets FC
1.59

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par
Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

Ostrovets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw
75%
FC Dnepr Mogilev or Ostrovets FC
77%
Draw or Ostrovets FC
48%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
29%
Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
84%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
54%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
28%
Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
70%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
34%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
67%
Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 2.06 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ostrovets FC attack 1.58 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
52%
level
23%
Ostrovets FC scores more
25%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Ostrovets FC

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat Ostrovets FC 2-0 in 1. Division on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Mogilev.