Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ostrovets FC vs Arsenal — 1. Division 2018

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Arsenal
Arsenal
11/18/20231. Division1. Division · Round 33Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ostrovets FC28%
×Draw24%
Arsenal48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrovets FC
1.21
Arsenal
1.67

Arsenal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ostrovets FC
1.50
Arsenal
1.73

allows per match

Ostrovets FC
1.60
Arsenal
0.91

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par
Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw
52%
Ostrovets FC or Arsenal
76%
Draw or Arsenal
72%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
11%
Arsenal wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
70%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
34%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
12%
Arsenal 1+ goals
81%
Arsenal 2+ goals
50%
Arsenal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
37%
Arsenal (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + Arsenal defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arsenal attack 1.73 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more
28%
level
24%
Arsenal scores more
48%

Arsenal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrovets FC vs Arsenal

Arsenal beat Ostrovets FC 4-2 in 1. Division on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen ASK in Astravets.