Arsenal 4–0 Ostrovets FC: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ostrovets FC

7/15/2023

1. Division · Round 16Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Arsenal55%

×Draw22%

Ostrovets FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchOstrovets FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.22

Arsenal

1.97

Ostrovets FC

1.22

Arsenal creates 61% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 69 away

2.35

creates per match

1.58

0.85

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Arsenal

2.35

Ostrovets FC

1.58

allows per match

Arsenal

0.85

Ostrovets FC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Ostrovets FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

77%

Arsenal or Ostrovets FC

78%

Draw or Ostrovets FC

45%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

32%

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

86%

Arsenal 2+ goals

58%

Arsenal 3+ goals

31%

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals

70%

Ostrovets FC 2+ goals

34%

Ostrovets FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

70%

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.35 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.97

Ostrovets FC attack 1.58 + Arsenal defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arsenal scores more

55%

level

22%

Ostrovets FC scores more

23%

Arsenal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff