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Ostia Mare vs Nocerina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nocerina
Nocerina
9/24/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ostia Mare36%
×Draw29%
Nocerina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostia Mare
1.10
Nocerina
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ostia Mare
1.39
Nocerina
1.21

allows per match

Ostia Mare
0.93
Nocerina
0.82

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par
Nocerina+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Nocerina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw
65%
Ostia Mare or Nocerina
71%
Draw or Nocerina
64%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+
15%
Nocerina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals
67%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
30%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
10%
Nocerina 1+ goals
66%
Nocerina 2+ goals
29%
Nocerina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
51%
Nocerina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Nocerina away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Nocerina defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nocerina attack 1.21 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ostia Mare scores more
36%
level
29%
Nocerina scores more
35%

Ostia Mare at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ostia Mare 0–1 Nocerina

Nocerina beat Ostia Mare 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio in Lido di Ostia.