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Nocerina vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nocerina
Nocerina
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
1/21/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Stadio San Francesco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nocerina34%
×Draw27%
Ostia Mare39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nocerina
1.17
Ostia Mare
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nocerina
1.18
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Nocerina
0.94
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Nocerina+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nocerina ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nocerina or draw
61%
Nocerina or Ostia Mare
73%
Draw or Ostia Mare
66%

Winning margin

Nocerina wins by 2+
14%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nocerina 1+ goals
69%
Nocerina 2+ goals
33%
Nocerina 3+ goals
11%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
72%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
36%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nocerina (draw refunded)
47%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nocerina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nocerina attack 1.18 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Nocerina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nocerina scores more
34%
level
27%
Ostia Mare scores more
39%

Ostia Mare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Nocerina 3–2 Ostia Mare

Nocerina beat Ostia Mare 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio San Francesco in Nocera Inferiore.