Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ostia Mare vs Insieme Formia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
5/25/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 34Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ostia Mare54%
×Draw24%
Insieme Formia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostia Mare
1.73
Insieme Formia
1.00

Ostia Mare creates 73% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ostia Mare
1.39
Insieme Formia
1.06

allows per match

Ostia Mare
0.93
Insieme Formia
2.06

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par
Insieme Formia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Insieme Formia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw
78%
Ostia Mare or Insieme Formia
76%
Draw or Insieme Formia
46%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+
30%
Insieme Formia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals
82%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
52%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
25%
Insieme Formia 1+ goals
63%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
26%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
71%
Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Insieme Formia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Insieme Formia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Insieme Formia attack 1.06 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ostia Mare scores more
54%
level
24%
Insieme Formia scores more
22%

Ostia Mare at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostia Mare vs Insieme Formia

Ostia Mare and Insieme Formia drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio in Lido di Ostia.