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Insieme Formia vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Insieme Formia
Insieme Formia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
D. Lorusso 84', 30'
1/23/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Stadio Comunale di Formia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Insieme Formia23%
×Draw24%
Ostia Mare53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Insieme Formia
1.01
Ostia Mare
1.66

Ostia Mare creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Insieme Formia
0.88
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Insieme Formia
1.71
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Insieme Formia+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Insieme Formia ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Insieme Formia or draw
47%
Insieme Formia or Ostia Mare
76%
Draw or Ostia Mare
77%

Winning margin

Insieme Formia wins by 2+
8%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Insieme Formia 1+ goals
64%
Insieme Formia 2+ goals
27%
Insieme Formia 3+ goals
8%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
81%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
49%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Insieme Formia (draw refunded)
30%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Insieme Formia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Insieme Formia attack 0.88 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Insieme Formia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Insieme Formia scores more
23%
level
24%
Ostia Mare scores more
53%

Ostia Mare at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Lorusso
84'
D. Lorusso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Insieme Formia 0–2 Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Insieme Formia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 23, 2022.

Goals: D. Lorusso (30', 84').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Formia in Formia.