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Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Osters IF
Osters IF
11/4/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ostersunds FK40%
×Draw25%
Osters IF35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.47
Osters IF
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.57
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.38
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
65%
Ostersunds FK or Osters IF
75%
Draw or Osters IF
60%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
19%
Osters IF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
77%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
43%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
18%
Osters IF 1+ goals
74%
Osters IF 2+ goals
39%
Osters IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
53%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Osters IF attack 1.35 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
40%
level
25%
Osters IF scores more
35%

Ostersunds FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF

Osters IF beat Ostersunds FK 2-1 in Superettan on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.