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Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
6/16/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 12Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Osters IF51%
×Draw25%
Ostersunds FK24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.57
Ostersunds FK
0.98

Osters IF creates 60% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 70 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.63
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
76%
Osters IF or Ostersunds FK
75%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
49%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
27%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
79%
Osters IF 2+ goals
46%
Osters IF 3+ goals
21%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
62%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
26%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
68%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Osters IF scores more
51%
level
25%
Ostersunds FK scores more
24%

Osters IF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Osters IF 1–1 Ostersunds FK

Osters IF and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in Superettan on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.