Ostersunds FK 1–1 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Orgryte IS

A. Ordóñez 86'

E. Sylisufaj 49'

4/20/2024

Superettan · Round 4Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ostersunds FK39%

×Draw22%

Orgryte IS39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.82

Ostersunds FK

1.83

Orgryte IS

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.72

creates per match

1.67

1.98

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.72

Orgryte IS

1.67

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.98

Orgryte IS

1.95

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Ostersunds FK-0.10scores less

Orgryte IS-0.47scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

61%

Ostersunds FK or Orgryte IS

78%

Draw or Orgryte IS

61%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

21%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

84%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

54%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

28%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

84%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

54%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

50%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.98 · 13 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.72 + Orgryte IS defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

39%

level

22%

Orgryte IS scores more

39%

Ostersunds FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Y. Adjoumani

Ostersunds FK · D

7.9

Match Events

38'

Jonathan Azulay

49'

E. Sylisufaj

62'

J. Hopcutt← A. Bonnah

62'

M. Oluwayemi← H. Norrby

74'

C. N'Sa← M. Musolitin

74'

S. Marklund← S. Kroon

78'

Arquimides Ordonez

78'

C. Vindehall← A. Abukar

83'

N. Christoffersson← E. Sylisufaj

86'

A. Ordóñez

88'

William Svensson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OstersundsOrgryte

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots20

2.18Expected Goals (xG)1.74

11Corners4

16Fouls5

Shots

17Total Shots20

4On Target6

4Off Target8

9Blocked4

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box12

Passing

58%Possession42%

572Total Passes363

490Accurate Passes282

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls5

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0

Superettan: Ostersunds FK 1–1 Orgryte IS

Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in Superettan on April 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Sylisufaj (49'), A. Ordóñez (86').

Ostersunds FK controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 20.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.

Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Ostersunds FK 1–1 Orgryte IS