Orgryte IS 2–2 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Orgryte IS

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ostersunds FK

M. Haglind-Sangré 41'

N. Christoffersson 33'

S. Marklund 90'

C. Kabuye 80'

8/20/2023

Superettan · Round 19Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Orgryte IS58%

×Draw21%

Ostersunds FK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orgryte ISExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.23

Orgryte IS

2.13

Ostersunds FK

1.23

Orgryte IS creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

2.06

creates per match

1.20

1.26

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Orgryte IS

2.06

Ostersunds FK

1.20

allows per match

Orgryte IS

1.26

Ostersunds FK

2.19

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.74scores more

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw

78%

Orgryte IS or Ostersunds FK

79%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

42%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

35%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

88%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

63%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

35%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

71%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

35%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

73%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.26 · 5 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 2.06 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ostersunds FK attack 1.20 + Orgryte IS defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Orgryte IS scores more

58%

level

21%

Ostersunds FK scores more

22%

Orgryte IS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

N. Christoffersson

41'

M. Haglind-Sangré

46'

A. Sporrong← Erick Brendon

46'

C. Kabuye← M. Musolitin

65'

E. Sadiku← D. Paulson

65'

J. Hedenquist← S. Karlsson Grach

65'

S. Marklund← A. Österholm

72'

Kevin Holmén

73'

Z. Ghanoum← C. Weilid

74'

Marcus Haglind Sangre

77'

M. Nuh← K. Holmén

80'

C. Kabuye

82'

Villiam Dahlström

85'

H. Karim← I. Dahlqvist

85'

W. Svensson← N. Christoffersson

86'

William Svensson

88'

Erion Sadiku

90+5'

Adjoumani Assiedou Yannick Armel

90'

S. Marklund

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OrgryteOstersunds

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots11

7Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots11

4On Target6

1Off Target4

2Blocked1

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0