Ostersunds FK 1–0 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Norrby IF

S. Kroon 55' (pen)

11/5/2022

Superettan · Round 30Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ostersunds FK44%

×Draw25%

Norrby IF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.25

Ostersunds FK

1.56

Norrby IF

1.25

Ostersunds FK creates 25% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 72 away

1.58

creates per match

1.14

1.36

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.58

Norrby IF

1.14

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.36

Norrby IF

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Norrby IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

69%

Ostersunds FK or Norrby IF

75%

Draw or Norrby IF

56%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

22%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

79%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

46%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

21%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

71%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

36%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

59%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.58 + Norrby IF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Norrby IF attack 1.14 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

44%

level

25%

Norrby IF scores more

31%

Ostersunds FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Adjoumani Assiedou Yannick Armel

46'

P. Beqaj← N. Osmanagic

55'

Nicklas Savolainen

55'

S. KroonPenalty

70'

H. Bellman← S. Kroon

75'

N. Mohammed← M. Andersson

75'

P. Eriksson← J. Brannefalk

79'

S. Karlsson Grach← C. Amatkarijo

82'

Aly Keita

89'

A. Reinholdsson← J. Burke

90+1'

M. Olsson← G. Broman

Shots

Statistics

OstersundsNorrby

Overview

11Total Shots7

8Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots7

5On Target1

3Off Target3

3Blocked3

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0