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Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

Norrby IF
Norrby IF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
N. Savolainen 72'
M. Olsson 19'
6/28/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 11Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Norrby IF46%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norrby IF
1.45
Ostersunds FK
1.05

Norrby IF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

Norrby IF
1.39
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

Norrby IF
1.21
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw
73%
Norrby IF or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
54%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+
23%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals
77%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
42%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
18%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
65%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
28%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)
63%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 71 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.39 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + Norrby IF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Norrby IF scores more
46%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
27%

Norrby IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Olsson
27'
Kevin Jablinski
55'
Johan Brannefalk
57'
Nicklas Savolainen
60'
C. Amatkarijo← A. Österholm
64'
N. Osmanagic← M. Andersson
65'
F. Hörberg← S. Kroon
65'
S. Karlsson Grach← E. Sivertsen
72'
N. Savolainen
76'
P. Eriksson← M. Olsson
79'
P. Amoran← Y. Adjoumani
90'
E. Bulut← P. Beqaj
90'
A. Sundgren← A. Wede

Possession

42%Norrby

Shots

4Norrby

Statistics

NorrbyOstersunds
Overview
42%Possession58%
4Total Shots4
5Corners3
12Fouls7
Shots
4Total Shots4
3On Target1
1Off Target3
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Superettan: Norrby IF 2–0 Ostersunds FK

Norrby IF beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 in Superettan on June 28, 2022.

Goals: M. Olsson (19'), N. Savolainen (72').

Ostersunds FK controlled possession (58%) and registered 4 shots to 4.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.