Ostersunds FK 3–3 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

4/5/2025

Superettan · Round 2Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ostersunds FK45%

×Draw25%

Landskrona BoIS30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Ostersunds FK

1.60

Landskrona BoIS

1.27

Ostersunds FK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 98 away

1.57

creates per match

1.16

1.38

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.57

Landskrona BoIS

1.16

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.38

Landskrona BoIS

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

70%

Ostersunds FK or Landskrona BoIS

75%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

55%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

23%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

80%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

47%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

22%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

72%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

36%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

60%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

45%

level

25%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

30%

Ostersunds FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff