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Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
3/2/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ostersunds FK51%
×Draw24%
Landskrona BoIS25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.75
Landskrona BoIS
1.15

Ostersunds FK creates 52% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.80
Landskrona BoIS
1.50

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
0.80
Landskrona BoIS
1.69

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
75%
Ostersunds FK or Landskrona BoIS
76%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
49%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
28%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
83%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
52%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
25%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
68%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
32%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
67%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.80 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.50 + Ostersunds FK defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
51%
level
24%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
25%

Ostersunds FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS

Ostersunds FK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.