Ostersunds FK 1–1 Gais: Result & Stats | Superettan

Ostersunds FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gais

4/2/2023

Superettan · Round 1Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ostersunds FK40%

×Draw26%

Gais34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Ostersunds FK

1.42

Gais

1.29

Ostersunds FK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 76 away

1.57

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.57

Gais

1.21

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.38

Gais

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

66%

Ostersunds FK or Gais

74%

Draw or Gais

60%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

19%

Gais wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

76%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

41%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

17%

Gais 1+ goals

72%

Gais 2+ goals

37%

Gais 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

54%

Gais (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Gais attack 1.21 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

40%

level

26%

Gais scores more

34%

Ostersunds FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff