Gais 2–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats | Superettan

Gais

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ostersunds FK

10/21/2023

Superettan · Round 27Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Gais44%

×Draw27%

Ostersunds FK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Gais

1.38

Ostersunds FK

1.05

Gais creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 70 away

1.25

creates per match

0.89

1.21

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Gais

1.25

Ostersunds FK

0.89

allows per match

Gais

1.21

Ostersunds FK

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gais+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gais or draw

71%

Gais or Ostersunds FK

73%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

56%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

21%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

75%

Gais 2+ goals

40%

Gais 3+ goals

16%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

65%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

28%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

61%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.25 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gais scores more

44%

level

27%

Ostersunds FK scores more

29%

Gais at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff