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Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2018

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
7/21/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ostersunds FK35%
×Draw25%
Degerfors IF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.35
Degerfors IF
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.57
Degerfors IF
1.48

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.38
Degerfors IF
1.13

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
61%
Ostersunds FK or Degerfors IF
75%
Draw or Degerfors IF
65%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
16%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
74%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
39%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
15%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
76%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
42%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
48%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Degerfors IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Degerfors IF attack 1.48 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
35%
level
25%
Degerfors IF scores more
39%

Degerfors IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF

Ostersunds FK beat Degerfors IF 2-1 in Superettan on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Östersund.