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Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK — Allsvenskan 2018

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
7/3/2021AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 9Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Degerfors IF43%
×Draw26%
Ostersunds FK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.42
Ostersunds FK
1.17

Degerfors IF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 60 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
Ostersunds FK
0.85

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
Ostersunds FK
1.77

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
69%
Degerfors IF or Ostersunds FK
74%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
57%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
20%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
76%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
41%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
17%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
69%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
33%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
58%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
43%
level
26%
Ostersunds FK scores more
31%

Degerfors IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Ostersunds FK

Degerfors IF beat Ostersunds FK 3-1 in Allsvenskan on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.