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Ostersunds FK vs Dalkurd FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
10/5/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 25Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ostersunds FK46%
×Draw25%
Dalkurd FF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.52
Dalkurd FF
1.15

Ostersunds FK creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.30
Dalkurd FF
0.80

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.50
Dalkurd FF
1.73

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
71%
Ostersunds FK or Dalkurd FF
75%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
54%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
23%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
78%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
45%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
20%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
68%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
32%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
61%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.30 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
46%
level
25%
Dalkurd FF scores more
29%

Ostersunds FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Ostersunds FK 3–0 Dalkurd FF

Ostersunds FK beat Dalkurd FF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on October 5, 2018.

The match was played at Jämtkraft Arena in Ostersund.