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Dalkurd FF vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
10/16/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 27Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF45%
×Draw25%
Ostersunds FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.17

Dalkurd FF creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 70 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
71%
Dalkurd FF or Ostersunds FK
75%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
55%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
23%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
78%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
45%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
20%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
69%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
33%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
61%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
45%
level
25%
Ostersunds FK scores more
29%

Dalkurd FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Dalkurd FF 1–1 Ostersunds FK

Dalkurd FF and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in Superettan on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.