Ostersunds FK 1–1 BK Hacken: Result & Stats

Ostersunds FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BK Hacken

M. Stolt 54'

G. Berggren 71'

10/27/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 25Jämtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ostersunds FK35%

×Draw25%

BK Hacken40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostersunds FKExpected goals in this matchBK Hacken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.44

Ostersunds FK

1.32

BK Hacken

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 128 away

1.30

creates per match

1.38

1.50

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ostersunds FK

1.30

BK Hacken

1.38

allows per match

Ostersunds FK

1.50

BK Hacken

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

BK Hacken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw

60%

Ostersunds FK or BK Hacken

75%

Draw or BK Hacken

65%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

15%

BK Hacken wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

73%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

38%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

15%

BK Hacken 1+ goals

76%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

42%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

46%

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.30 + BK Hacken defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

BK Hacken attack 1.38 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more

35%

level

25%

BK Hacken scores more

40%

BK Hacken at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Keita

Ostersunds FK · G

8.9

Match Events

46'

S. Karlsson← F. Jno-Baptiste

46'

Ó. Sverrisson← K. Lund

52'

Oskar Sverrisson

53'

C. Colkett← F. Arhin

53'

H. Bellman← L. Fritzson

54'

M. Stolt↳ N. Sonko-Sundberg

71'

G. Berggren↳ P. Wålemark

82'

R. Lindgren← J. Toivio

86'

Tobias Carlsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OstersundsBK

Overview

32%Possession68%

10Total Shots21

5Corners7

12Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots21

4On Target12

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box11

Passing

32%Possession68%

325Total Passes691

209Accurate Passes584

64%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

11Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides6