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BK Hacken vs Ostersunds FK — Svenska Cupen 2019

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
2/17/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

BK Hacken57%
×Draw23%
Ostersunds FK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
1.78
Ostersunds FK
0.94

BK Hacken creates 89% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
2.50
Ostersunds FK
1.31

allows per match

BK Hacken
0.56
Ostersunds FK
1.06

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
80%
BK Hacken or Ostersunds FK
77%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
43%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
32%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
83%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
53%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
26%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
61%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
24%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
74%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.50 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + BK Hacken defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BK Hacken scores more
57%
level
23%
Ostersunds FK scores more
20%

BK Hacken at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: BK Hacken 2–0 Ostersunds FK

BK Hacken beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.