Osters IF 1–0 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Helsingborg

3/1/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Sportfältet Teleborg Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Osters IF55%

×Draw21%

Helsingborg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.41

Osters IF

2.19

Helsingborg

1.41

Osters IF creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

2.80

creates per match

1.82

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Osters IF

2.80

Helsingborg

1.82

allows per match

Osters IF

1.00

Helsingborg

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

76%

Osters IF or Helsingborg

79%

Draw or Helsingborg

45%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

33%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

89%

Osters IF 2+ goals

64%

Osters IF 3+ goals

37%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

76%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

41%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

69%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 2.80 + Helsingborg defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.19

Helsingborg attack 1.82 + Osters IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Osters IF scores more

55%

level

21%

Helsingborg scores more

24%

Osters IF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff