Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Osters IF vs Helsingborg — Superettan 2018

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Helsingborg
Helsingborg
9/27/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 24Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Osters IF43%
×Draw25%
Helsingborg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.50
Helsingborg
1.27

Osters IF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 81 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.63
Helsingborg
1.47

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Helsingborg
1.37

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Helsingborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
68%
Osters IF or Helsingborg
75%
Draw or Helsingborg
57%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
21%
Helsingborg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
78%
Osters IF 2+ goals
44%
Osters IF 3+ goals
19%
Helsingborg 1+ goals
72%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
36%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
57%
Helsingborg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + Helsingborg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Helsingborg attack 1.47 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Osters IF scores more
43%
level
25%
Helsingborg scores more
32%

Osters IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Osters IF 1–1 Helsingborg

Osters IF and Helsingborg drew 1-1 in Superettan on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.