Osters IF 1–3 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Osters IF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Djurgardens IF

A. Aliev 45'

A. Priske 90'

P. Aslund 79'

A. Stahl 48'

11/9/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 30Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Osters IF33%

×Draw25%

Djurgardens IF42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osters IFExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.57

Osters IF

1.36

Djurgardens IF

1.57

Djurgardens IF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.42

creates per match

1.26

1.88

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Osters IF

1.42

Djurgardens IF

1.26

allows per match

Osters IF

1.88

Djurgardens IF

1.30

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Osters IF-0.64scores less

Djurgardens IF+0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw

58%

Osters IF or Djurgardens IF

75%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

67%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+

15%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals

74%

Osters IF 2+ goals

39%

Osters IF 3+ goals

16%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

79%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

46%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)

44%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.88 · 9 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.42 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 + Osters IF defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Osters IF scores more

33%

level

25%

Djurgardens IF scores more

42%

Djurgardens IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

J. Rinne

Djurgardens IF · G

7.9

Match Events

38'

Sebastian Hedlund

45'

A. Aliev↳ D. Olsson

48'

A. Stahl

62'

M. Tamminen← A. Suhonen

62'

D. Stensson← A. Ekdal

62'

J. Okkels← O. Fallenius

70'

Tatu Varmanen

72'

B. Hegland← T. Nguen

72'

N. Zugelj← R. Schuller

73'

N. Soderberg← D. Ask

73'

R. Adjei← T. Varmanen

78'

T. Bergvall← A. Stahl

79'

P. Aslund

82'

L. Bergquist← D. Olsson

82'

85'

85'

90+7'

90'

A. Priske↳ B. Hegland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OstersDjurgardens

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots10

1.74Expected Goals (xG)1.22

4Corners2

16Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target5

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

345Total Passes428

260Accurate Passes334

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1