Djurgardens IF 1–0 Osters IF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Osters IF

M. Adolfsson 87' (OG)

4/24/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 53Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Djurgardens IF58%

×Draw23%

Osters IF19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.95

Djurgardens IF

1.82

Osters IF

0.95

Djurgardens IF creates 92% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.88

creates per match

0.93

0.96

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.88

Osters IF

0.93

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.96

Osters IF

1.77

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.26scores more

Osters IF-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

81%

Djurgardens IF or Osters IF

77%

Draw or Osters IF

42%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

33%

Osters IF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

84%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

54%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

27%

Osters IF 1+ goals

61%

Osters IF 2+ goals

25%

Osters IF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

75%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 21 matches

Osters IF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.88 + Osters IF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Osters IF attack 0.93 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

58%

level

23%

Osters IF scores more

19%

Djurgardens IF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

D. Stensson

Djurgardens IF · M

8.3

Match Events

24'

Albin Mörfelt

65'

T. Nguen← Z. Sawo

75'

N. Soderberg← M. Christensen

81'

T. Bergvall← T. Gulliksen

81'

I. Alemayehu Mulugeta← S. Haarala

82'

V. Poppler← A. Aliev

82'

V. Rodic← C. Morfelt

87'

M. AdolfssonOwn goal

88'

R. Adjei← T. Varmanen

90+1'

J. Une-Larsson← M. Siltanen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensOsters

Overview

55%Possession45%

26Total Shots6

15Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots6

7On Target0

11Off Target3

8Blocked3

13Inside Box3

13Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

449Total Passes373

363Accurate Passes281

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Osters IF

Djurgardens IF beat Osters IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Adolfsson (87' o.g.).

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (55%) and registered 26 shots to 6.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.

Djurgardens IF vs Osters IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Osters IF