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Ostbahn XI vs Mannswörth — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Ostbahn XI
Ostbahn XI
FT
1 – 3
Mannswörth
Mannswörth
4/29/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 23Ostbahn-XI-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ostbahn XI47%
×Draw21%
Mannswörth32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostbahn XI
2.16
Mannswörth
1.75

Ostbahn XI creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ostbahn XI
1.73
Mannswörth
1.24

allows per match

Ostbahn XI
2.27
Mannswörth
2.58

finishing

Ostbahn XI+0.00on par
Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostbahn XI ↓

Mannswörth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ostbahn XI or draw
68%
Ostbahn XI or Mannswörth
79%
Draw or Mannswörth
53%

Winning margin

Ostbahn XI wins by 2+
28%
Mannswörth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ostbahn XI 1+ goals
88%
Ostbahn XI 2+ goals
63%
Ostbahn XI 3+ goals
36%
Mannswörth 1+ goals
83%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
52%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ostbahn XI (draw refunded)
60%
Mannswörth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostbahn XI at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostbahn XI attack 1.73 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + Ostbahn XI defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ostbahn XI scores more
47%
level
21%
Mannswörth scores more
32%

Ostbahn XI at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ostbahn XI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostbahn XI vs Mannswörth

Mannswörth beat Ostbahn XI 3-1 in Landesliga - Wien on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Ostbahn-XI-Platz in Wien.