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Mannswörth vs Ostbahn XI — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mannswörth
Mannswörth
FT
2 – 1
Ostbahn XI
Ostbahn XI
10/8/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 8Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mannswörth51%
×Draw23%
Ostbahn XI26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mannswörth
1.83
Ostbahn XI
1.26

Mannswörth creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mannswörth
1.40
Ostbahn XI
0.93

allows per match

Mannswörth
1.58
Ostbahn XI
2.27

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par
Ostbahn XI+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Ostbahn XI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw
74%
Mannswörth or Ostbahn XI
77%
Draw or Ostbahn XI
49%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+
28%
Ostbahn XI wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals
84%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
54%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
28%
Ostbahn XI 1+ goals
72%
Ostbahn XI 2+ goals
36%
Ostbahn XI 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)
66%
Ostbahn XI (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Ostbahn XI away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Ostbahn XI defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ostbahn XI attack 0.93 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mannswörth scores more
51%
level
23%
Ostbahn XI scores more
26%

Mannswörth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Mannswörth 2–1 Ostbahn XI

Mannswörth beat Ostbahn XI 2-1 in Landesliga - Wien on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannswörth in Mannswörth.