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Ostbahn XI vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Ostbahn XI
Ostbahn XI
FT
0 – 3
ASV 13
ASV 13
4/8/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 21Ostbahn-XI-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ostbahn XI51%
×Draw20%
ASV 1329%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostbahn XI
2.35
ASV 13
1.76

Ostbahn XI creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ostbahn XI
1.73
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Ostbahn XI
2.27
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Ostbahn XI+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostbahn XI ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ostbahn XI or draw
71%
Ostbahn XI or ASV 13
80%
Draw or ASV 13
49%

Winning margin

Ostbahn XI wins by 2+
31%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ostbahn XI 1+ goals
90%
Ostbahn XI 2+ goals
68%
Ostbahn XI 3+ goals
41%
ASV 13 1+ goals
83%
ASV 13 2+ goals
52%
ASV 13 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ostbahn XI (draw refunded)
64%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostbahn XI at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostbahn XI attack 1.73 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.35

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Ostbahn XI defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ostbahn XI scores more
51%
level
20%
ASV 13 scores more
29%

Ostbahn XI at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ostbahn XI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Ostbahn XI 0–3 ASV 13

ASV 13 beat Ostbahn XI 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Ostbahn-XI-Platz in Wien.