ASV 13 1–0 Ostbahn XI: Result & Stats

ASV 13

FT

1 – 0

Ostbahn XI

9/25/2021

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 6Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

ASV 1345%

×Draw22%

Ostbahn XI33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASV 13Expected goals in this matchOstbahn XI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.57

ASV 13

1.88

Ostbahn XI

1.57

ASV 13 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

0.93

2.21

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

ASV 13

1.48

Ostbahn XI

0.93

allows per match

ASV 13

2.21

Ostbahn XI

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par

Ostbahn XI+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

Ostbahn XI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw

67%

ASV 13 or Ostbahn XI

78%

Draw or Ostbahn XI

55%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+

25%

Ostbahn XI wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals

85%

ASV 13 2+ goals

56%

ASV 13 3+ goals

29%

Ostbahn XI 1+ goals

79%

Ostbahn XI 2+ goals

46%

Ostbahn XI 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)

58%

Ostbahn XI (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

Ostbahn XI away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + Ostbahn XI defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ostbahn XI attack 0.93 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASV 13 scores more

45%

level

22%

Ostbahn XI scores more

33%

ASV 13 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASV 13 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff