Osnabrück U19 0–0 Union Berlin U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Berlin U19

2/3/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15VfL Osnabrück Leistungszentrum Nebenplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Osnabrück U1930%

×Draw22%

Union Berlin U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.95

Osnabrück U19

1.50

Union Berlin U19

1.95

Union Berlin U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

1.95

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

52%

Osnabrück U19 or Union Berlin U19

78%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

70%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

14%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

78%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

44%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

19%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

58%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

48%

Union Berlin U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

S. Werbelow← E. Gencel

63'

M. Augé← G. Baya

63'

P. Petermann← L. Sitz

81'

S. Burke← E. Curic

88'

G. Firat← D. Lovrić

Osnabrück

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Tredup

63'▲M. Augé←▼G. Baya

81'▲S. Burke←▼E. Curic

88'▲G. Firat←▼D. Lovrić

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

AugéBurkeFiratPopescuBerentzenWölfingBovenschulte

Manager: T. Mandl

31'▲S. Werbelow←▼E. Gencel

63'▲P. Petermann←▼L. Sitz

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

WerbelowPetermannRieckeLindemannKemleinMaciejewskiMuschkowski

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Union Berlin U19

Osnabrück U19 and Union Berlin U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 3, 2019.

The match was played at VfL Osnabrück Leistungszentrum Nebenplatz 2 in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Union Berlin U19