Union Berlin U19 3–1 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Union Berlin U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Osnabrück U19

2/27/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Union Berlin U1961%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.32

Union Berlin U19

2.42

Osnabrück U19

1.32

Union Berlin U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 50 away

2.38

creates per match

1.22

1.43

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.38

Osnabrück U19

1.22

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.43

Osnabrück U19

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

80%

Union Berlin U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

39%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

40%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

91%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

69%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

43%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

73%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

38%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.43 · 65 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.38 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.42

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.22 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

61%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

20%

Union Berlin U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Osnabrück U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Osnabrück U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.

Union Berlin U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Osnabrück U19