Osnabrück U19 1–1 MSV Duisburg U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

MSV Duisburg U19

J. Kroll 26'

F. Meurer 65'

2/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Osnabrück U1936%

×Draw23%

MSV Duisburg U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.67

Osnabrück U19

1.58

MSV Duisburg U19

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 68 away

1.29

creates per match

1.40

1.95

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

60%

Osnabrück U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

77%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

64%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

18%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

79%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

47%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

21%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

81%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

50%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

48%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

36%

level

23%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

40%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. Kroll

57'

J. Völkerding← L. Bukvić

65'

F. Meurer

72'

D. Kifel← N. Scheuer

72'

E. Zucht← R. Acar

80'

D. Kolzok← S. Barnes

90+3'

N. König← H. Krasenbrink

90'

A. Gorczycki← L. Blume

Osnabrück

MSV

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Danneberg

57'▲J. Völkerding←▼L. Bukvić

72'▲D. Kifel←▼N. Scheuer

72'▲E. Zucht←▼R. Acar

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

VölkerdingKifelZuchtAlbrechtKorteUwanduSiemon

Manager: M. Jahn

80'▲D. Kolzok←▼S. Barnes

90+3'▲N. König←▼H. Krasenbrink

90'▲A. Gorczycki←▼L. Blume

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

KolzokKönigGorczyckiFrederikMykhailenko