Osnabrück U19 3–1 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Holstein Kiel U19

D. Duarte 65'

D. Rosum 58'

B. Pernot 27' (OG)

B. Pernot 9'

9/24/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7VfL Osnabrück Leistungszentrum Nebenplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Osnabrück U1944%

×Draw21%

Holstein Kiel U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.78

Osnabrück U19

2.00

Holstein Kiel U19

1.78

Osnabrück U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 61 away

1.29

creates per match

1.61

1.95

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Holstein Kiel U19

1.61

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Holstein Kiel U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

65%

Osnabrück U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

79%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

56%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

24%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

86%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

59%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

32%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

83%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

53%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.00

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

35%

Osnabrück U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

B. Pernot

27'

B. PernotOwn goal

46'

J. Wansiedler← L. Molt

57'

H. Voigt← Jan-Matti Seidel

58'

D. Rosum

65'

C. Sundquist← S. Mansaray

65'

D. Duarte

70'

M. Petersen← G. Zinkondo

84'

G. Przondziono← J. Tepe

86'

M. Schrick← S. Haubrock

86'

N. Drauschke← N. Awuku

90'

L. Dibra← D. Duarte

Osnabrück

Holstein

▼

⚽🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Thioune

65'▲C. Sundquist←▼S. Mansaray

84'▲G. Przondziono←▼J. Tepe

86'▲M. Schrick←▼S. Haubrock

90'▲L. Dibra←▼D. Duarte

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

SundquistPrzondzionoSchrickDibraWegmannUedickovenRohrmann

Manager: F. Jaensch

46'▲J. Wansiedler←▼L. Molt

57'▲H. Voigt←▼Jan-Matti Seidel

70'▲M. Petersen←▼G. Zinkondo

86'▲N. Drauschke←▼N. Awuku

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

WansiedlerVoigtPetersenDrauschkeOttoBorgmannKoch

U19 Bundesliga: Osnabrück U19 3–1 Holstein Kiel U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 24, 2017.

Goals: B. Pernot (9', 27' o.g.), D. Rosum (58'), D. Duarte (65').

The match was played at VfL Osnabrück Leistungszentrum Nebenplatz 2 in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Osnabrück U19 3–1 Holstein Kiel U19