Holstein Kiel U19 0–1 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Osnabrück U19

S. Mansaray 27'

3/3/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 20Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1946%

×Draw21%

Osnabrück U1933%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.69

Holstein Kiel U19

2.01

Osnabrück U19

1.69

Holstein Kiel U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

1.51

creates per match

1.29

2.08

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

67%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Osnabrück U19

79%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

54%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

26%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

87%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

59%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

32%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

82%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

50%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.01

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

46%

level

21%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

33%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

S. Mansaray

46'

N. Jungehülsing← H. Voigt

60'

J. Wansiedler← L. Molt

83'

L. Wanger← M. Borgmann

85'

H. Berentzen← L. Dibra

87'

E. Wegmann← G. Przondziono

90+3'

D. Duarte← J. Böhning

Holstein

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Jaensch

46'▲N. Jungehülsing←▼H. Voigt

60'▲J. Wansiedler←▼L. Molt

83'▲L. Wanger←▼M. Borgmann

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

JungehülsingWansiedlerWangerOttoMelahnKoch

Manager: M. Tredup

85'▲H. Berentzen←▼L. Dibra

87'▲E. Wegmann←▼G. Przondziono

90+3'▲D. Duarte←▼J. Böhning

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

BerentzenWegmannDuarteTepeRohrmannDuhme

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Osnabrück U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 3, 2018.

Goals: S. Mansaray (27').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Osnabrück U19