Osnabrück U19 1–3 Hennef 05 U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hennef 05 U19

F. Cramer 82'

C. Catak 90+5'

K. Cornelius 58'

A. Bouakran 47'

3/29/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 8Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Osnabrück U1950%

×Draw21%

Hennef 05 U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchHennef 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.63

Osnabrück U19

2.15

Hennef 05 U19

1.63

Osnabrück U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

1.29

creates per match

1.31

1.95

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Hennef 05 U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Hennef 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

70%

Osnabrück U19 or Hennef 05 U19

79%

Draw or Hennef 05 U19

50%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

29%

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

88%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

63%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

36%

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

80%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

48%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Hennef 05 U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

30%

Osnabrück U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Goutzidis← S. Andric

46'

L. Dang← S. Music

47'

A. Bouakran

58'

K. Cornelius

59'

E. Zucht← L. Uwandu

59'

F. Cramer← R. Shivani

59'

N. Scheuer← V. Bischoff

67'

C. Akbas← F. Albrecht

67'

J. Völkerding← M. Khan

70'

B. Yörük← K. Becher

70'

N. Mofa← H. Suguro

79'

S. Pietrek← J. Grauer

82'

F. Cramer

84'

N. Kunz← A. Bouakran

90+5'

C. Catak

Osnabrück

Hennef

Müller

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Danneberg

59'▲E. Zucht←▼L. Uwandu

59'▲F. Cramer←▼R. Shivani

59'▲N. Scheuer←▼V. Bischoff

67'▲C. Akbas←▼F. Albrecht

67'▲J. Völkerding←▼M. Khan

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

ZuchtCramerScheuerAkbasVölkerdingKorteSiemon

Manager: M. Lunga

46'▲F. Goutzidis←▼S. Andric

46'▲L. Dang←▼S. Music

70'▲B. Yörük←▼K. Becher

70'▲N. Mofa←▼H. Suguro

79'▲S. Pietrek←▼J. Grauer

84'▲N. Kunz←▼A. Bouakran

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

GoutzidisDangYörükMofaPietrekKunzHellwig